2022 IEBC ANALYSIS

Official IEBC results reveal: Winner got only 26,361 votes (23.71%) in fragmented 8-candidate field. Victory margin was just 7,263 votes.

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Strategic Overview - 2022 IEBC Analysis

109,554 Total Votes Cast (2022)
26,361 Winner's Votes (23.71%)
7,263 Victory Margin (6.53%)
145 Competitive Stations

Key Strategic Insights from 2022 Results

  • Winner secured only 23.71% - lowest in Kenya's competitive races
  • Top 5 candidates separated by only 12,606 votes - highly fragmented
  • Three constituencies immediately flippable (Lagdera, Township, Dadaab)
  • 145 polling stations highly competitive (19.5% of county votes)
  • 30,000-33,000 votes needed for comfortable victory in 2027