GARISSA 2027: Constituency Analysis

Garissa Township

The Golden Prize - 24,789 votes cast in 2022

24,789 2022 Votes Cast

22% Of Total County

29.7% Winner's Share

34 Competitive Stations

2022 Results Analysis

Winner Siyad Amina Udgoon secured only 29.7% (7,376 votes) - the lowest winner's percentage in Kenya's competitive races. This constituency is highly fragmented with no dominant force.

Strategic Assessment

Most competitive constituency in entire county
Winner got only 29.7% - no dominant force
Urban, educated, development-focused voters
Coalition math works: 5,584 + 4,291 = 9,875 > 7,376
Less clan-based voting patterns (HHI: 0.194 - very fragmented)

Why This Matters

With 22% of county votes and the lowest winner's percentage, Garissa Township is the single most valuable target. Win here + your base = you win the election.

Campaign Investment Required

35-40% of total budget - highest allocation due to strategic importance.

Dadaab

The Strategic Play - 22,271 votes cast in 2022

22,271 2022 Votes Cast

20.3% Of Total County

43.4% Winner's Share

1,321 Victory Margin

2022 Results Analysis

Winner Gure Shukran Hussein secured 43.4% (9,573 votes) with runner-up Buul Khadija at 37.4% (8,252 votes). Only 1,321 vote margin - highly flippable with right coalition.

Strategic Assessment

Flippable with right coalition
Coalition math: 8,252 + 2,826 = 11,078 > 9,573
Second-highest turnout in county
Refugee-hosting area with unique development needs
Economic integration messaging resonates

Why This Matters

High turnout + narrow margin + clear coalition opportunity. Control Dadaab + Lagdera + Township = 61,973 votes (56% of county).

Campaign Investment Required

10-15% of total budget - moderate allocation for strategic flip.

Fafi

Mixed Territory - 13,538 votes cast in 2022

13,538 2022 Votes Cast

12.4% Of Total County

50.9% Winner's Share

16 Competitive Stations

2022 Results Analysis

Winner Siyad Amina Udgoon secured 50.9% (6,929 votes) with runner-up Mohamed Mulki Warsame at 33.1% (4,504 votes). 2,425 vote margin - moderate stronghold.

Strategic Assessment

Moderate stronghold for winner
16 competitive stations
Mixed Ogaden territory - less monolithic than Balambala
Coalition opportunity possible

Strategy

If from Fafi: Your base (60-65% target = 8,800 votes). If not: Coalition partner or limited targeted investment. Swing play: 16 competitive stations worth ground game.

Lagdera

The Opportunity - 16,892 registered voters

16,892 Registered Votes

11% Of Total County

Strategic Position

Youth-dominated constituency with development potential. EASIEST CONSTITUENCY TO FLIP - only 839 vote margin in 2022, 40 highly competitive stations (highest concentration).

Coalition Strategy

Youth entrepreneurship programs
Pastoralist support initiatives
Education infrastructure development
Women empowerment projects

Balambala

The Emerging Market - 15,238 registered voters

15,238 Registered Votes

10% Of Total County

Strategic Position

Growing urban center with business opportunities. Mixed farming and trade activities.

Coalition Strategy

Business association partnerships
Agricultural value chains
Infrastructure development
Youth skills training

Ijara

The Traditional Heartland - 14,785 registered voters

14,785 Registered Votes

9% Of Total County

Strategic Position

Traditional authority with cultural significance. Pastoralist heritage and conservative values.

Coalition Strategy

Traditional leader engagement
Cultural preservation initiatives
Pastoralist development programs
Religious institution partnerships

CONSTITUENCY INTELLIGENCE

Constituency Analysis

Garissa Township

2022 Results Analysis

Strategic Assessment

Why This Matters

Campaign Investment Required

Dadaab

2022 Results Analysis

Strategic Assessment

Why This Matters

Campaign Investment Required

Fafi

2022 Results Analysis

Strategic Assessment

Strategy

Lagdera

Strategic Position

Coalition Strategy

Balambala

Strategic Position

Coalition Strategy

Ijara

Strategic Position

Coalition Strategy